LAGOS, Nigeria. (Voice Of Naija) Sweden’s centre-left opposition has taken a narrow lead in the country’s parliamentary election, while the anti-immigration Sweden Democrats have suffered their first electoral setback.
The development could reshape Swedish politics and challenge the broader momentum of Europe’s far right.
With about 95 percent of districts counted, Sweden’s four-party centre-left opposition blockled by Social Democratic leader Magdalena Andersson was projected to hold 176 seats in the 349-member Riksdag.
According to Sweden’s Election Authority, this is in contrast with 173 seats for the four parties that make up or support Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson’s conservative-led government.
The three-seat advantage has opened a possible path for Andersson to return as prime minister, four years after her Social Democrats lost power.
However, the election has not yet produced a confirmed government, with late postal ballots and votes cast at Swedish embassies abroad still to be incorporated into the final count.
According to Reuters, the preliminary result represents a significant setback for the Sweden Democrats, who have been one of the most influential forces behind Sweden’s political shift to the right since the 2022 election.
The party was projected to receive about 17.6 percent of the vote, down almost three percentage points from the 20.5 percent it secured four years ago.
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The decline is particularly significant because the Sweden Democrats had expanded their parliamentary influence in every election since entering the Riksdag.
Their latest performance is therefore their first electoral reversal at a national parliamentary election.
The party also fell behind Kristersson’s Moderate Party, leaving it in third place nationally.
For years, the Sweden Democrats have played a central role in shaping Sweden’s immigration and crime policies despite remaining outside the cabinet.
Their support was crucial to the formation and survival of the current right-wing government after the 2022 election.
That arrangement had already moved Swedish politics considerably to the right, particularly on immigration.
Reuters reported that the Sweden Democrats campaigned on tougher immigration measures, including proposals aimed at increasing the number of immigrants leaving Sweden and restricting aspects of multiculturalism.
The party’s electoral decline therefore represents more than a change in parliamentary numbers; it raises questions about whether its influence over national policy has reached a peak.
The election also delivered a complicated result for the Moderates, the party led by Kristersson. Although the party performed better than it did in 2022, its gains were not enough to compensate for losses suffered by its allies.
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The centre-left bloc, meanwhile, benefited from gains by the Left Party and the Greens, helping it secure its narrow parliamentary advantage.
The Liberals also played an important role; having spent much of the campaign close to Sweden’s four-percent parliamentary threshold, the party managed to remain in the Riksdag, receiving about 5.4 percent of the vote and securing 19 seats.
Without those seats, the balance between the two blocs would have been even more difficult for the right to overcome.
Still, the centre-left’s apparent victory does not automatically mean Andersson will immediately become prime minister.
The four parties on the opposition side have differences over taxation, economic policy, energy and other issues. Reuters has reported that Andersson could face difficult negotiations in trying to turn the narrow electoral advantage into a stable governing coalition.
Kristersson has also refused to concede the political future of his government before the final result is known.
Speaking after the vote, he said it remained an open question who would govern Sweden and indicated that discussions about possible combinations would have to wait until the final numbers were available.
Sweden Democrat leader Jimmie Åkesson similarly cautioned against drawing immediate conclusions, saying the final government outcome would not be known on election night.
The result nevertheless carries significance beyond Sweden.
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Across Europe, far-right parties have made major gains in recent years, benefiting from concerns about immigration, crime, the cost of living and dissatisfaction with established political parties.
In Germany, the Alternative for Germany has recently recorded a breakthrough in state-level elections, while right-wing parties have continued to strengthen their influence elsewhere on the continent.
Sweden’s result suggests that the trend is not uniform; the Sweden Democrats remain a major political force, and their 17.6 percent projected vote share still represents substantial support.
But their first decline after years of growth indicates that the party’s expansion is not guaranteed to continue indefinitely.
The result also demonstrates the importance of tactical voting in a fragmented parliamentary system. Reuters reported that some voters appear to have shifted their support strategically in an effort to prevent the Sweden Democrats and the wider conservative bloc from strengthening their position.
For Andersson, the immediate challenge is now turning a narrow electoral lead into a functioning government.
For the Sweden Democrats, the challenge is different: rebuilding momentum after their first national setback and determining whether their increasingly hard-line approach to immigration remains electorally sustainable.
And for Sweden, the election could mark the beginning of another political adjustment, one in which the centre-left returns to power, but does so in a country where immigration policy, crime, security and the influence of the far right have permanently changed the political landscape.
The final result is expected after the remaining ballots are counted.
Until then, Sweden remains in political limbo, with a three-seat preliminary advantage separating the two blocs and no guarantee yet of who will ultimately form the next government.
