LAGOS, Nigeria (Voice Of Naija) The El Niño climate pattern is intensifying faster than previously projected and has yet to reach its peak, and the United Nations is warning that the months ahead could bring some of the most severe weather disruptions in recorded history.
The UN News Centre has reported that the World Meteorological Organization, this week, confirmed that El Niño is “firmly established” in the tropical Pacific and is expected to become “very strong,” peaking around the end of 2026.
Forecasters are now almost certain the event will persist through February 2027, with an 80 to 90% probability of continuation through November and beyond, according to the WMO.
The concern, UN News reports, lies not only in El Niño’s current strength but in what is feeding it.
An enormous reservoir of unusually warm water beneath the surface of the tropical Pacific continues to build water that scientists say could keep sustaining and potentially intensifying the phenomenon in the months ahead even as surface indicators fluctuate.
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June 2026 global average sea surface temperatures have already reached a record high for June, according to weather data cited by Wikipedia’s 2026 weather log, with spring 2026 temperatures exceeded only by spring 2024.
El Niño, a periodic warming of the central and eastern tropical Pacific triggers cascading weather changes around the world: severe drought in some regions, catastrophic flooding in others, and the suppression or intensification of tropical storm seasons depending on location.
The WMO has directly linked the current event to extreme heat and drought across Europe, erratic monsoon patterns in South and Southeast Asia, and elevated flood risk across parts of South America and East Africa.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, cited in the 2026 weather records, has forecast a central Pacific temperature anomaly of 3 to 4 degrees Celsius, a range that, if sustained, would make this the strongest El Niño on record.
The EU Joint Research Centre has separately warned that crop productivity impacts are expected across Sub-Saharan Africa, India, China, Australia, and Brazil, with extreme heat in the tropics building from September and peaking between December 2026 and February 2027.
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The WMO’s warning comes on the same day the FAO reported global food prices have hit a four-year high, the two reports together painting a stark picture of a world where climate and conflict shocks are compounding one another with growing speed.
Nigeria sits directly in El Niño’s crosshairs; historically, strong El Niño events reduce rainfall across West Africa’s Sahel belt and disrupt the West African monsoon that farmers across the North rely on.
Reduced precipitation during planting and harvest seasons, particularly from September through November, can mean devastating crop losses in Kano, Sokoto, Kebbi, and Borno States, where millions of smallholders already operate in fragile conditions.
At the same time, erratic rainfall patterns can intensify flash flooding in central and southern Nigeria.
The Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) must immediately issue updated seasonal forecasts and agricultural advisories, and the Federal Government should activate early response mechanisms now, before this El Niño peaks at year-end.
