ABUJA, Nigeria (VOICE OF NAIJA)-The World Bank has warned that the global food system remains vulnerable despite sufficient overall food supplies, citing rising production costs, geopolitical tensions, and climate-related threats as key risks to global food security.
In its June 2026 Food & Nutrition Security Update, the institution said a combination of soaring input costs, supply chain disruptions, and extreme weather could undermine years of progress made in reducing poverty.
According to the report, “Global food and nutrition security remains fragile. Global food supplies remain broadly adequate… but higher costs and supply chain disruptions continue to put pressure on prices, while production of major cereals is expected to decline from 2025 record levels.”
The report identified volatility in the global fertiliser market as one of the major factors contributing to the current uncertainty.
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Fertiliser prices increased by 35 per cent during the first five months of 2026 compared to the same period in 2025.
Although prices have eased slightly in recent weeks, experts cautioned that lower fertiliser usage earlier in the planting season may negatively affect upcoming harvests.
The World Bank also highlighted the growing threat posed by severe weather conditions, with attention focused on the increasing likelihood of an El Niño weather cycle that could significantly reduce crop production in vulnerable regions.
The report stated, “There is a 61 to 87 per cent probability of El Niño emerging by mid-2026 and persisting into 2027. If realised, rice output could fall by 20 to 50 per cent in affected regions, with South Asia, Southern Africa, and parts of East Asia most exposed, further deepening food insecurity in already vulnerable countries.”
It further noted that domestic food price inflation remains elevated globally. While inflation has eased slightly in high-income and upper-middle-income countries, conditions have worsened in low-income nations.
Between April and May 2026, the proportion of low-income countries experiencing food inflation above five per cent increased from 40 per cent to 45 per cent.
The report said the humanitarian impact of these combined challenges is most severe in conflict-affected and climate-vulnerable regions.
In East Africa, between 44 million and 47 million people are currently in urgent need of food assistance, with famine conditions confirmed in parts of Sudan and a high risk of famine in Somalia. It also noted that parts of Latin America and West Africa are facing localised food crises.
The World Bank warned, “Global food and nutrition security is becoming more fragile, as geopolitical shocks, climate risks, and rising input costs converge to strain food systems and household resilience. These pressures risk reversing gains in poverty reduction and food security, particularly in low-income countries and fragile settings.”
The report added that fertiliser prices are projected to rise by 38 per cent this year.
As 2026 progresses, the World Bank stressed the need for governments and the international community to strengthen targeted interventions, improve early warning systems for drought, and enhance contingency planning to prevent localised food shortages from developing into broader humanitarian emergencies.