ABUJA, Nigeria (VOICE OF NAIJA)-Seven members of the OPEC+ alliance have agreed to increase oil production quotas again as Gulf producers continue efforts to recover from disruptions caused by the Middle East conflict.
The decision was reached during a virtual meeting on Sunday involving energy ministers from Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman.
In a statement, the organisation said the ministers “decided to implement a production adjustment of 188 thousand barrels per day,” adding that “this adjustment will be implemented in August 2026”.
The move follows months of reduced output after Iran’s disruption of maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz during the Middle East conflict, which severely affected oil exports from Gulf countries.
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OPEC data showed that combined oil production by Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Kuwait three of the seven countries increasing their quotas fell by about six million barrels per day between the first quarter of 2026 and May.
However, the situation began to improve after Tehran and Washington signed a memorandum of understanding on June 17, committing both sides to removing obstacles to maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz while negotiations continue.
Commenting on the development, commodity analyst at Swiss bank UBS, Giovanni Staunovo, told AFP that “for now, production is probably still below” OPEC+ production targets.
Since the agreement was signed, shipping activity in the region has gradually resumed, contributing to a sharp decline in oil prices to levels seen before the conflict, as markets anticipate a steady return to normal operations.
According to a United States official quoted by Bloomberg, oil shipments passing through the Strait of Hormuz may already have exceeded 10 million barrels per day.
However, Saxo Bank analyst Ole Hansen said much of the crude currently moving through the waterway had been stored in tankers or storage facilities during the disruption, noting that “shut-in production takes time to restart”.
“Assuming shipping continues to normalise, July will show an improvement with August probably being the month where the pickup accelerates,” he told AFP.
Analysts also warned that the global oil market could face oversupply next year.
“For next year, everybody is anticipating a surplus,” Rystad Energy analyst Jorge Leon told AFP.
Although replenishing strategic inventories depleted during the conflict could initially absorb additional supplies, analysts said producers may later face renewed downward pressure on oil prices.
The development also presents fresh challenges for OPEC+, which has been under pressure since the United Arab Emirates exited the alliance in May.
The group is expected to balance declining prices with growing demands from members seeking higher production quotas.
Iraq has already requested an increase in its production quota to recover output lost during the Middle East conflict, according to the Iraqi Oil Ministry.
However, Hansen said the request for a higher quota “is not imminent” because Iraq’s production remains below pre-conflict levels.
“Iraq’s request may become part of the 2027 capacity review, where production baselines will be examined,” he added.
OPEC+ is expected to review members production quotas later this year based on their production capacity, a process analysts believe could prove contentious.