LAGOS, Nigeria (VOICE OF NAIJA) – The world is on track to exceed the 1.5 degrees Celsius global warming threshold established under the Paris Agreement before the end of the decade, according to a new five-year climate outlook published by the World Meteorological Organisation.
The report places the probability of the global average temperature breaching the 1.5-degree ceiling — measured across the period between 2026 and 2030 — at 75 per cent. Scientists regard the threshold as a critical marker, beyond which the risks of irreversible environmental damage, including intensified storms, accelerated ice loss and rising sea levels, increase significantly.
The Arctic emerged as the region of greatest concern in the assessment, with temperatures projected to average 2.8 degrees Celsius above the 1991-to-2020 baseline over the coming five winters. Researchers warn that sustained warming at this rate could have far-reaching consequences for ocean circulation systems and global climate stability.
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Professor Michael Jacobs of the University of Sheffield said the findings carried an urgent message for policymakers. “This report reminds us of what too many politicians have been urging us to forget: that climate change is happening, it is getting worse, and the only way of slowing it down is to move as fast as possible to renewable energy and electrification,” he stated.
The report also noted that global deforestation slowed in 2025 following a record year for forest loss. Environmentalists welcomed the development as evidence that targeted policy intervention can produce results, though they cautioned that the broader pace of ecological degradation remains a serious concern.
For Nigeria, the findings carry particular weight. The country’s forests have faced sustained pressure from agricultural expansion and illegal logging over several decades, while extreme weather events linked to climate change have increasingly disrupted farming communities across the north and middle belt regions.
Climate experts and international organisations have called on governments to strengthen domestic environmental legislation and honour existing emissions reduction commitments, warning that further delays in meaningful action will narrow the window for avoiding the most severe projected outcomes.
