LAGOS, Nigeria (VOICE OF NAIJA)- Growing geopolitical tensions, rising energy demand and increasing volatility in fossil fuel markets are accelerating a fundamental shift in the global energy landscape, with electrification emerging as the cornerstone of the next phase of the energy transition.
A new report by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), titled “Transitioning Away from Fossil Fuels: A Roadmap Based on Renewables, Electrification and Grid Enhancement,” argues that achieving global climate and energy security goals will require far more than expanding renewable energy generation.
Released in partnership with the Brazilian Presidency of COP30 ahead of the Copenhagen Climate Ministerial, the report warns that existing energy systems remain structurally ill-equipped to deliver the 1.5°C climate target despite international commitments to triple renewable energy capacity and double energy efficiency improvements by 2030.
According to IRENA, the next critical challenge is the large-scale electrification of transport, industry, buildings and other end-use sectors, alongside a gradual but decisive reduction in fossil fuel consumption.
READ ALSO: Green Energy: China Seeks Deeper Climate Partnership With Nigeria
The agency’s updated 1.5°C scenario, to be published in its forthcoming World Energy Transition Outlook, projects electricity’s share of global final energy consumption rising from 23 percent today to 35 percent by 2035 and more than 50 percent by 2050. Most of the additional electricity demand is expected to be supplied by renewable energy sources.
At the same time, fossil fuels’ share of energy consumption is forecast to decline from around 80 percent today to 50 percent by 2035 and to less than 20 percent by mid-century.
“The world must adapt to a new energy reality,” said IRENA Director-General, Francesco La Camera.
“Beyond the goals of tripling renewables and doubling energy efficiency lies the wider challenge of transforming entire energy systems and reducing fossil fuel use across both supply and demand. Electrification and fossil fuel phase-out are inseparable and must advance together.”
La Camera noted that electrification powered by renewable energy delivers multiple benefits beyond emissions reduction. These include enhanced energy security through reduced dependence on imported fossil fuels, stronger economic competitiveness through new industrial value chains, and more affordable electricity for households and businesses.
The report identifies electrification as the primary structural force behind the long-term decline of fossil fuels across major sectors of the economy. However, IRENA cautioned that achieving this transformation will require extensive investments in electricity infrastructure, energy storage and system flexibility.
One of the biggest obstacles remains grid capacity. The agency estimates that approximately 2,500 gigawatts of wind and solar projects worldwide are currently awaiting connection to electricity networks, highlighting a growing infrastructure bottleneck.
READ ALSO: Sanwo-Olu Unveils Electrification Projects In Badagry Communities
To address this challenge, annual global investment in power grids will need to more than double from about $500 billion in 2025 to roughly $1.2 trillion annually over the coming decades.
Beyond grids, substantial funding will also be required for hydrogen and alternative fuel supply chains, electric vehicle charging infrastructure, building retrofits, electric heating and cooling systems, and industrial electrification technologies.
According to La Camera, the pace at which countries phase out fossil fuels will largely depend on how quickly they can electrify their economies.
“The speed of the fossil fuel phase-out will ultimately be determined by how rapidly economies electrify,” he said. “To keep the 1.5°C goal within reach, the world needs a clear global direction, including an electrification target for 2035 alongside targets for grids and system flexibility.”
The report also emphasizes the need for robust monitoring frameworks to track progress in electrification, grid modernisation and fossil fuel reduction, helping governments and international institutions coordinate implementation efforts.
IRENA noted that the commitments made under the COP28 UAE Consensus and the first Global Stocktake under the Paris Agreement established a foundation for transitioning away from fossil fuels. The Transitioning Away from Fossil Fuels (TAFF) roadmap, launched by Brazil’s COP30 Presidency with IRENA’s support, is expected to serve as a key framework for advancing climate action, energy security and sustainable development simultaneously.
As preparations begin for COP31 in Antalya, IRENA said it remains committed to supporting countries through policy analysis, partnerships and technical engagement aimed at accelerating the global energy transition.
