ABUJA, Nigeria (VOICE OF NAIJA)- Global food prices climbed by five per cent in the two months after the near-total shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz following the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East in late February 2026, a new World Bank analysis has revealed.
The rise pushed food prices to their highest point since January 2024, with recent figures indicating that oils and meals accounted for most of the increase, while grains recorded relatively smaller gains.
According to the World Bank, the oils and meals category experienced the strongest upward pressure, surging by 10 per cent during the period due to rising crude oil prices and increased biofuel blending mandates in major economies such as Indonesia, Thailand, and the United States.
Grain prices increased by three per cent within the same period, supported by what the bank described as “ample global supplies”, despite wheat and maize recording quarterly increases of nine per cent and four per cent respectively amid drought concerns and rising production costs.
So far in 2026 through April, overall food prices remain two per cent higher than the same period last year, which the World Bank described as a relatively “contained” reaction compared to earlier global crises.
The bank drew comparisons with the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022, when food prices surged by 15 per cent within a similar two-month timeframe roughly three times the current increase.
READ ALSO: Lagos Ready For World Bank Collaboration — Sanwo-Olu
“Even so, the food price response has been far more contained than in early 2022,” the World Bank stated, attributing the situation to “ample grain and oilseed supplies” and the fact that Northern Hemisphere farmers had mostly secured fertiliser supplies before the conflict started.
The report explained that the present shock is affecting food markets mainly through rising input costs rather than direct disruptions to key food export routes.
Oils and meals have remained the most impacted segment, with soybean oil prices rising 16 per cent in the first quarter and 25 per cent year-on-year, driven by growing renewable diesel demand and fresh US biofuel targets.
Palm oil and soybean prices also strengthened due to increased biodiesel demand and renewed Chinese purchases, although the World Bank noted that “ample edible oil supplies helped limit further gains.”
The report added that food security concerns have worsened in import-dependent regions, particularly across the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan, where inflation accelerated after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
According to the bank, food inflation in the region had remained relatively stable before the conflict but increased sharply in Gulf economies following disruptions to supply routes.
The analysis also identified Iran as particularly vulnerable, noting that food inflation in the country had already reached 98 per cent in February 2026.
READ ALSO: Job Creation Key To Poverty Reduction, Stability – World Bank
Outside the region, food inflation also accelerated in Europe and Central Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, as well as South Asia, reflecting trends observed after the 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
Looking ahead, the World Bank projected moderate increases in food commodity prices, with grains expected to rise by two per cent in 2026, oils and meals by four per cent, and the broader food index by around 2.5 per cent.
However, the bank warned that risks remain “tilted firmly to the upside”, especially if supply disruptions continue beyond mid-year or energy prices remain high.
The UN World Food Programme estimates that as many as 45 million more people could face acute hunger in 2026 if supply chain disruptions persist, with over half of those affected expected to be in Sub-Saharan Africa and the MENAAP region.