ABUJA, Nigeria (VOICE OF NAIJA)- Global food security is facing increasing risks as the ongoing Middle East conflict disrupts supply chains, according to warnings issued on Monday by the heads of the International Energy Agency, the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank Group.
The three organisations met under a coordination group set up in early April to strengthen responses to the energy and economic consequences of the war.
They noted that the effects remain “substantial, global, and highly asymmetric,” with energy-importing nations, especially low-income countries, most severely impacted.
Rising prices of oil, gas and fertilisers triggered by the conflict have heightened concerns over food security and job losses, while also reducing export revenues for some oil- and gas-producing countries in the Middle East.
“The situation remains very uncertain, and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is yet to normalise,” the institutions said in a joint statement, adding that even if normal shipping resumes, global supplies of key commodities may take time to return to pre-war levels.
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They cautioned that fuel and fertiliser costs could stay elevated for a prolonged period due to damaged infrastructure, with supply disruptions likely to cause shortages of critical inputs across energy, agriculture and industrial sectors.
The statement also highlighted broader impacts of the conflict, including displacement of populations, job disruptions, and reduced travel and tourism, all of which may take time to recover.
The meeting comes ahead of key publications, including the IEA’s Oil Market Report and the IMF’s World Economic Outlook, scheduled for Tuesday, 14 April.
According to the institutions, updated assessments were shared, alongside discussions on conditions in the most affected countries and possible policy responses.
Their teams are collaborating at both global and national levels to provide coordinated support, including tailored policy guidance and, where necessary, financial assistance from the IMF and World Bank.
“We will continue to monitor closely and assess the impact of the war on energy markets, the global economy and individual countries,” the statement said, adding that collaboration would extend to other international bodies to support recovery efforts aimed at stability, growth and job creation.
Recent data further highlight mounting pressure on global food systems.
The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations reported that global food commodity prices increased for the second consecutive month in March, largely driven by higher energy costs linked to the escalating conflict in the Near East.
The FAO Food Price Index averaged 128.5 points in March, rising 2.4 per cent from February and 1.0 per cent above its level a year earlier.
“Price indices across all commodity groups, such as cereals, meat, dairy, vegetable oils, and sugar, rose to varying degrees, reflecting not only underlying market fundamentals but also responses to higher energy prices linked to the conflict escalation in the Near East,” the agency said, noting that although prices remain below their March 2022 peak, they are trending upward again.
Vegetable oil prices recorded one of the sharpest increases, rising 5.1 per cent month-on-month and standing 13.2 per cent higher than a year earlier, driven by stronger demand for biofuel feedstocks amid rising crude oil prices.
Sugar prices also jumped 7.2 per cent, supported by expectations that Brazil would channel more sugarcane into ethanol production.
Cereal prices saw moderate increases, with wheat rising on concerns about drought in the United States and reduced planting prospects in Australia, while maize prices edged up due to strong global supply.
In contrast, rice prices fell by 3.0 per cent, reflecting weaker import demand and currency pressures in several importing nations.
Trends in animal products were mixed. Meat prices rose slightly, supported by higher pig meat prices in the European Union and tighter cattle supply in Brazil, while dairy prices increased due to seasonal supply constraints in Oceania.
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Máximo Torero warned that prolonged instability in the Middle East could further strain global food systems, particularly if key energy supply routes are disrupted.
“If the conflict continues, it could eventually hit the supply of essential staples and push global prices higher,” he said, stressing the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz in global fuel and fertiliser flows.
He added that countries already burdened by high debt are especially vulnerable, as rising import costs may force governments to cut food purchases or switch to lower-quality supplies, worsening food insecurity.
To mitigate the impact, the FAO called for a comprehensive policy approach, including securing alternative trade routes for agricultural inputs, safeguarding humanitarian supply chains, and strengthening social protection systems.
Over the long term, it urged increased investment in storage and transport infrastructure, as well as more efficient fertiliser use to enhance resilience against future shocks.