ABUJA, Nigeria (VOICE OF NAIJA)-The International Monetary Fund has lowered Nigeria’s 2026 growth forecast to 4.1 per cent, pointing to economic disruptions stemming from the ongoing Middle East conflict and its effects on global energy markets.
The adjustment was outlined in the Fund’s April 2026 Global Financial Stability Report published on its website on Tuesday.
The new projection is slightly below the 4.4 per cent estimate issued in January 2026, although it is still marginally higher than the forecast released in October 2025.
“In Nigeria, growth momentum is sustained at 4.1 percent in 2026, supported by improved macroeconomic stability and positive terms-of-txe see rade effects, while higher goods and transport costs are headwinds. Growth is expected to strengthen in 2027 to 4.3 percent as these headwinds ease,” the report said.
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During the presentation of the report at the IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington, D.C., officials cautioned that energy price spikes linked to the conflict, alongside supply chain disruptions, are slowing recovery in several regions.
The Fund’s Chief Economist, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, explained that the downgrade mirrors broader pressures on energy-importing economies.
“On Sub-Saharan Africa, we are seeing some downgrade of growth, and we are seeing some uptick in inflation in a number of countries in the region,” Gourinchas said.
“The impact is very much along the lines of what we see more broadly for a lot of the countries, especially the ones that are energy importers.”
He added that the Fund is closely tracking developments and working with affected countries to determine their needs.
“We are following with a number of countries what their needs may be in the current environment,” he said, noting collaboration with the International Energy Agency and the World Bank on energy market disruptions.
Further commenting, the Chief of the IMF Research Department’s World Economic Studies Division, Denz Igan, said the 0.3 percentage point reduction reflects mixed pressures on Nigeria’s economy.
“War-related higher fuel and fertilizer prices and higher shipping costs are going to weigh on non-oil activity in Nigeria.
“There’s some offset coming from higher oil prices, but the net balance is weaker growth in 2026, with some recovery built in for 2027,” Igan said.
The Fund expects median inflation in Sub-Saharan Africa to rise from 3.4 per cent in 2025 to 5 per cent in 2026, driven by higher energy and fertilizer costs, potential fuel shortages, and increasing logistics expenses.
It added that tight monetary policy will be “crucial to achieve the inflation target of the central bank” in Nigeria.
The IMF also highlighted that bilateral aid to Sub-Saharan Africa declined by 16 to 20 per cent in 2025, weakening fiscal buffers at a time of rising commodity and shipping costs.