ABUJA, Nigeria (VOICE OF NAIJA)-The Nigerian Economic Summit Group has cautioned that reversing ongoing economic reforms could push Nigeria’s growth back to crisis-era levels of around two per cent, undermining recent progress in macroeconomic stability.
Speaking at the NESG quarterly media engagement in Abuja on Friday, the Head of Research, Dr Joseph Ogebe, said, “What we see is that growth could go to around two to three per cent if the policies are being reversed.”
Ogebe explained that although reforms implemented over the past 30 months have started to yield positive outcomes, any reversal could intensify fiscal strain, discourage investment, and worsen poverty levels.
He noted that Nigeria’s growth rate had risen from about 2.5–2.9 per cent in 2023 to roughly 3.9 per cent, with slight improvements in per capita income.
He added that inflation had also declined from about 40 per cent in 2023 to 15.06 per cent as of February 2026.
Despite these gains, he said the impact has largely remained at the macro level, with limited direct benefits felt by citizens.
He described 2026 as a decisive year, stating that “this year, 2026, is a make-or-break year” for sustaining reforms and translating economic stability into improved living conditions.
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Ogebe stressed that Nigeria must grow its economy to at least six per cent to significantly reduce poverty, warning that current growth is narrow and driven mainly by sectors such as finance, ICT, and oil and gas, while employment-generating sectors like agriculture and manufacturing continue to lag.
He also cautioned against increasing calls to reverse policies amid global uncertainties, noting that past subsidy regimes forced the government to borrow to fund consumption instead of development.
“We were actually borrowing to pay for the subsidy. There was no money to spend on capital and development projects. That is not where we should go now,” he said.
Also speaking, the Chief Economist and Director of Research at NESG, Olusegun Omisakin, said Nigeria is currently in a consolidation phase after experiencing near economic collapse in recent years.
He noted that while reforms such as subsidy removal have had mixed effects, reversing them could reintroduce inefficiencies.
“If today we announce that the subsidy should be reversed, you are still going to see what we used to see before… the government has no money for capital development… a lot of inefficiency in the system,” Omisakin said.
He added that reforms do not automatically deliver results, emphasising that outcomes depend on institutional strength, transparency, and effective allocation of resources.
According to him, attention should be placed on improving systems to make reforms effective rather than abandoning them due to short-term challenges.
“The attention should be towards creating a system that makes reforms work rather than reversing systems that we are not seeing working for now,” he said, citing countries like Ghana where policy reversals worsened economic conditions.
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Omisakin also highlighted improved access to foreign exchange and rising capital inflows as early indicators of recovery, but warned that decisions taken now would shape Nigeria’s long-term economic path.
In her remarks, the Head of Public Affairs and Public Policy Development at NESG, Seun Ojo, said sustaining reforms beyond political cycles is essential for achieving inclusive growth.
She explained that discussions at the 31st Nigerian Economic Summit centred on converting macroeconomic gains into productivity, resilience, and equity.
Ojo added that the summit identified key priorities such as industrialisation, infrastructure, investment, inclusion, and institutional reforms, stressing the importance of policy alignment and disciplined implementation across government agencies.
She further noted that rebuilding public trust through transparency and citizen engagement would be crucial for sustaining reforms and achieving long-term economic transformation.
The National Bureau of Statistics had earlier reported that Nigeria’s economy grew by 4.07 per cent year-on-year in real terms in the fourth quarter of 2025, reflecting improved performance compared to the 3.76 per cent recorded in the same period of 2024.
On a full-year basis, the economy recorded 3.87 per cent growth in 2025, an increase from the 3.38 per cent achieved in 2024.
This performance exceeded the International Monetary Fund’s projection, which had forecast a 3.4 per cent growth in Nigeria’s real gross domestic product for 2025 in its July 2025 World Economic Outlook report.