ABUJA, Nigeria (VOICE OF NAIJA)- Aviation sector growth slowed sharply to 2.88 per cent in the third quarter of 2025, as travellers continued to struggle with rising airfares, according to the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics.
The NBS Gross Domestic Product report for Q3 2025 showed that the nominal year-on-year growth rate for air transport declined steeply to 2.88 per cent, compared with 30.60 per cent in the second quarter and 57.21 per cent in the first quarter of the year.
Despite the slower growth, the sector’s output value increased.
Air transport GDP at current basic prices rose from N78.71bn in Q3 2024 to N80.98bn in Q3 2025.
In the first quarter, output climbed from N67.28bn in 2024 to N105.77bn in 2025, while the second quarter recorded an increase from N28.59bn to N37.35bn over the same period.
A quarter-on-quarter analysis for 2025 highlights the sector’s volatility. Industry output fell by about 64.7 per cent between Q1 and Q2, dropping from N105.77bn to N37.35bn, before rebounding by roughly 116.8 per cent between Q2 and Q3 to N80.98bn.
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However, since year-on-year growth compares each quarter with the corresponding period of 2024, the nominal growth rate still slid from 57.21 per cent in Q1 to 30.60 per cent in Q2 and further to 2.88 per cent in Q3.
The figures also indicate that aviation’s contribution to the overall economy remains marginal and slightly lower than a year earlier.
The sector accounted for 0.07 per cent of total GDP in Q3 2025, down from 0.08 per cent in Q3 2024.
Its share stood at 0.11 per cent in Q1 2025 and 0.04 per cent in Q2.
In contrast, the broader economy continued to record nominal expansion. GDP at current basic prices increased from N96.16tn in Q3 2024 to N113.59tn in Q3 2025.
Quarterly data for the entire economy also rose from N79.51tn to N94.05tn between Q1 2024 and Q1 2025, and from N84.48tn to N100.73tn between Q2 2024 and Q2 2025.
Real growth figures for aviation further show a shift from deep contraction to modest expansion, even though momentum has weakened.
Air transport real GDP growth remained negative throughout 2024, recording –9.51 per cent in Q1, –11.18 per cent in Q2, and –9.90 per cent in Q3. In 2025, the sector returned to positive territory, posting –0.81 per cent in Q1, 6.34 per cent in Q2, and 1.60 per cent in Q3.
Overall, the NBS data depict an aviation industry that posted strong year-on-year nominal growth early in 2025 but saw that rate tumble to 2.88 per cent by the third quarter, even as output levels and GDP contribution stayed above those of 2024.
The deceleration comes amid persistently high ticket prices, prompting concerns over the sector’s ability to sustain growth in the face of elevated costs and weakened demand.
In response, the Senate recently summoned the Minister of Aviation and Aerospace Development, Festus Keyamo, along with key industry stakeholders, for an emergency meeting following widespread public outrage over the sharp rise in domestic airfares ahead of the festive season.
The move followed a motion by Senator Buhari Abdulfatai, who warned that surging ticket prices pose a threat to national mobility and could significantly disrupt end-of-year travel plans for millions of Nigerians.
The Senate’s intervention comes against reports that one-way fares on several domestic routes particularly flights to the South-South and South-East have jumped by as much as 200 per cent, with prices now exceeding N300,000.
Before the Yuletide rush, tickets on these routes averaged about N120,000.
A recent review of airline websites confirmed that some fares have risen by more than 150 per cent compared with pre-holiday levels, intensifying the burden on travellers already facing inflation and rising transportation costs.
During plenary, Senator Buhari conveyed growing public complaints that domestic air travel is becoming increasingly unaffordable.
He noted that a one-way flight from Abuja to Lagos now costs between N400,000 and N600,000 an amount many Nigerians “can no longer afford” at a time when insecurity and poor road conditions have made air travel the preferred option.
“We need to invite stakeholders of our airline agencies to interact and interrogate these issues. Immediate steps must be taken before the festive period,” he said.