ABUJA, Nigeria (VOICE OF NAIJA)-Nigeria’s fragile economic recovery is encountering new challenges as the growing conflict between the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and the Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (PENGASSAN) threatens to disrupt industrial productivity, weaken investor confidence, and endanger the country’s long-term energy security.
At a media briefing on Tuesday, the Director-General of the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria, Segun Ajayi-Kadir, warned that the standoff could create serious ripple effects across industries.
“How the Dangote-PENGASSAN face-off affects manufacturers is that factories will be unable to produce. We are likely to suffer cuts to our production schedule. We will be unable to have a market. We can lose market edge, and imported products that are not suffering this disruption are likely to fill the gap,” Ajayi-Kadir warned.
He cautioned that the dispute could trigger job losses, disrupt logistics, shrink household purchasing power, and reduce government revenues.
“This will also come back to the government because Company Income Tax is based on what you have produced. So, it’s in the interest of everybody the labour, the government, manufacturers, Dangote Refinery and PENGASSAN that they resolve this.”
Ajayi-Kadir also expressed concern about the negative message the crisis could send to international investor
READ ALSO: PENGASSAN Cut Off Fuel, Gas Supply To Dangote Refinery
“The only observation we have as MAN is that the signal this dispute sends to the international community is quite unfortunate. If a company as big as Dangote, with footprints in other economies, is dealt with this way first it was regulatory agencies, then truck drivers, then PENGASSAN and NLC it is mind-boggling.
This is a $20bn investment, and we cannot afford to let it degenerate into bedlam,” he stressed.
Similarly, the Nigeria Employers’ Consultative Association (NECA) criticised PENGASSAN’s actions, calling them reckless and damaging. NECA’s Director-General, Adewale Oyerinde, in a strongly worded statement, described the strike threats as “self-help and tantamount to economic sabotage.”
“Conflict is an inevitable feature of the labour ecosystem, and Nigeria has statutory and institutional frameworks designed to address any disputes, including the Industrial Arbitration Panel and the National Industrial Court of Nigeria.
Any action capable of discouraging investment, undermining enterprise sustainability, or harming the workers that unions claim to protect will be counter-productive,” Oyerinde said.
He urged the Ministry of Labour and Employment to act decisively.
“It is unacceptable for any union to conscript or coerce those not interested in its action or disrupt the operations of legitimate businesses not party to the dispute.
Nigeria’s recovering economy cannot be sacrificed on the altar of actions and pronouncements alien to global and local industrial relations practice,” he cautioned.
The Alliance for Economic Research and Ethics (AREET) also issued a strong warning, describing the standoff as a severe asymmetric shock to Nigeria’s energy security and macroeconomic stability.
It cautioned that any prolonged disruption at the 650,000 barrels per day refinery the largest in Africa could force a return to costly fuel imports, widen the trade deficit, deplete foreign reserves, and destabilise the foreign exchange market.
READ ALSO: PENGASSAN, Dangote Refinery Negotiations Talks End In Deadlock
“Such a scenario could quickly evaporate the modest gains recorded in external reserves, exchange rate stability, and inflation moderation,” the group cautioned.
AREET highlighted that the Central Bank of Nigeria had recently lowered the Monetary Policy Rate from 27.5 to 27 per cent, citing easing inflation and stronger reserves of $42bn.
“Those fragile gains could quickly disappear if refinery operations remain crippled, leading to fuel scarcity, rising transport and power costs, fresh inflationary pressure, capital flight, exchange rate depreciation, and GDP downgrades,” it added.
The group further warned that fuel shortages could increase public frustration, raise transportation costs, and spark protests with political consequences ahead of the 2027 elections.
AREET proposed an emergency tripartite meeting within 48 hours involving PENGASSAN, the NLC, Dangote management, the Ministries of Labour and Petroleum, and the CBN, with an independent mediator present.
It also called for a forensic probe into the sabotage allegations, a temporary halt to dismissals until due process is followed, and a coordinated communication plan to reassure citizens and investors about fuel supply stability.
“Nigeria stands at an inflexion point. The Dangote Refinery represents a generational opportunity to pivot away from fuel import dependence. A protracted industrial action that impedes its operation risks reversing the modest but hard-won macroeconomic gains.
Only a mediated, transparent resolution that credibly investigates sabotage claims, restores fair employment processes, and secures continuous refinery operations can protect livelihoods, investment, and national recovery,” the group concluded.
Despite mediation efforts by the Federal Government, talks have ended without resolution, heightening concerns among manufacturers, employers, and policymakers.
Experts warn that without swift intervention, the crisis could hurt Nigeria’s industrial growth, worsen inflation, and further weaken foreign investor confidence at a time when foreign direct investment remains low.
For now, the Dangote–PENGASSAN dispute is seen as a major test of Nigeria’s ability to balance labour rights, private investment, and economic stability.
The outcome may significantly shape the country’s industrial and energy trajectory in the coming years.